Ask anyone to describe their life five years ago and they will get most of it wrong — not the facts, the weather of it. They forget the friend they hadn't met yet, the job that didn't exist, the small ordinary Tuesday that turned out to matter.
Forecasting is bad in both directions, but it fails asymmetrically. Dread is easy to picture because it uses materials you already have. Good outcomes tend to be made of people and chances not yet in the room, which is exactly why they are hard to see coming and no less likely for it.