I know that if I can remove negative thoughts then my life will change

The clearest cost of a bad forecast about yourself is the things that never get attempted. Not dramatic things. An application closed at the last field, a text drafted and deleted, a class you looked up twice and didn't book.

None of that registers as loss. There is no moment where you watch the door shut, which is why the total is so easy to miss and so large by forty.

What changes when the forecast changes isn't your character, it is your attempt rate. And attempts, unlike moods, are countable — you can put one in this week and know for certain that it happened.