Self-assessment tends to get done at the worst possible moment — at midnight, or halfway through the hard part, when the only available data is how it feels right now.
Nobody judges their swimming by how they feel in the fourth length. And yet the verdicts reached during the difficult hour get filed as permanent findings, while the evidence from every hour you handled competently is thrown out for being unremarkable. The estimate is not low because you are weak. It is low because it was taken in bad light.