Ask someone in advance how they'd cope with a particular disaster and they'll tell you they couldn't. Ask them two years after it happened and they'll describe, in detail, how they did.
The prediction was made by somebody who had never been in the room. That gap is the most reliable finding there is about people under pressure, and it applies to you in precisely the way it feels like it doesn't. Whatever estimate you're running was calculated by a version of you working with no data.